What playoff situation gives Michigan the best opportunity to win a national championship this Friday?
A playoff path is available to eight teams. Which sports teams ought Michigan should support?
Yes, I am well aware that this entire piece will be rendered outdated if Michigan doesn’t defeat Iowa tomorrow night. Let’s assume that Michigan wins easily tomorrow because if they lose, the death of this piece would be the least of our worries. Who should Michigan supporters support in the remaining conference finals?
Obviously, a national title is the ultimate goal. To eliminate any possible subplots from our logic—such as facing a Pac-12 team in the Rose Bowl just for nostalgia’s sake or defeating Ryan Day once more—that is the only reason I even feel the need to bring it up. In light of this, what plausible situation gives Michigan the most opportunity to raise the trophy?
First, the obvious: Georgia, the reigning national champions, would have to be eliminated from the playoffs completely, or at the very least, not face Michigan in the opening round. I don’t believe I’m making a bold statement when I say Georgia poses the greatest danger to Michigan. Georgia must lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship in order for Georgia to be eliminated.
The fact that Florida State is susceptible is the next most evident logical conclusion. With Tate Rodemaker not exactly blowing everyone away and Jordan Travis out for the season, I believe it’s safe to say that the Seminoles are everyone’s dream first-round opponent. Florida State would need to defeat Louisville on Saturday in order for this to occur
In all likelihood, one of the two Pac-12 teams will qualify for the CFP. Though they aren’t playing their best football right now, Washington is still unbeaten. On the other hand, Oregon is dominating offensively and has just lost once, against Washington; this is the reason the Ducks are favored by 9.5 on a neutral field tonight. I’ll be cheering for the Huskies because, in my opinion, Michigan should be more concerned about Washington than Oregon.
We would then see Michigan move up to No. 1, Washington move up to No. 2, and then there would be some drama for the Nos. 3 and No. 4 places, with Florida State probably holding at least one of them at this point (Michigan, Alabama, Florida State, and Washington winning). This is the point of ambiguity.
Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State would be vying for one berth if Texas lost. Georgia would be the opponent for Alabama, the lone conference champion among the three. Alabama, in my opinion, would be in.
If Texas prevails, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Ohio State will all be vying for the final berth, with Oregon being eliminated due to their two losses. It’s never that easy. Texas and Alabama would be the only conference champions out of the four, and Texas would win the head-to-head match. I simply find it difficult to understand why the committee would completely omit the SEC.
Ultimately, I believe Alabama advances in both cases, which essentially renders the Texas vs. Oklahoma State game meaningless. To take it a step further, I think Alabama would grab the third position from Florida State. This would match up No. 4 Florida State against No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington against No. 3 Alabama. This seems like the simplest course for Michigan. In the Rose Bowl first round, the Wolverines would face a wounded Seminole squad. The national championship game would thus feature either an always-terrifying Alabama squad or a rather fragile Washington outfit.
I will be cheering for Michigan, Florida State, Alabama, Washington, Texas, and Texas in that order this weekend.
However, what are your thoughts? Which of the following scenarios, in your opinion, gives Michigan the best chance to win the national championship? This year, Michigan can defeat any team in the nation, but which route do you want to see them take to get there? In the comments, try to be as realistic as you can.
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